Oil price up in Asia

SINGAPORE—Oil rose in Asian trade on Thursday after US oil stockpiles did not increase as expected, analysts said.

New York’s main contract, light sweet crude for June delivery, advanced 13 cents to $100.23 a barrel and Brent North Sea crude for July delivery gained 13 cents to $112.43.

The US Department of Energy (DoE) in its weekly report Wednesday showed American crude stockpiles had failed to rise as expected in the week ending May 13.

Stockpiles steadied last week, bucking forecasts for a rise of 700,000 barrels, according to analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires.

“This was one key reason why crude oil prices was performing impressively,” said Ker Chung Yang, a Singapore-based commodity analyst at Phillip Futures.

“Crude oil prices will likely hang around the $100 level for quite some time unless there is a strong impetus to bring it down,” Ker told AFP.

Traders closely monitor the DoE report for clues on US demand as it is the world’s biggest oil consumer.

Source.

US oil price tops key $110 barrier

US oil prices hit their highest level since September 2008 Thursday as the IMF warned that demand is outpacing the growth of global supplies.

The New York benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery closed at $110.30 a barrel, up $1.47 from Wednesday, after hitting an intraday high of $110.44 a barrel.

In London, Brent North Sea crude for May delivery picked up 37 cents to $122.67, still below its Wednesday high of $123.37 -- its best level since early August 2008.

"$110 was a very important technical level," said oil analyst John Kilduff of Again Capital.

"That's the number we've all been watching, not because it is a round number."

"It was the big action in 2008, the level that prices took off to the $147 level. And after they fell from there, it proved to be some support."

Kilduff also pointed to the ongoing rebellion in Libya "grinding to a standstill" that suggested Libya's valued light crude would remain off the market for longer than originally anticipated.

On Wednesday a Greek-owned tanker carrying $100-million worth of crude left a terminal in rebel-held territory near Tobruk.

The cargo was the first consignment of oil to leave Libya since UN-backed air strikes began on March 19 against strongman Moammar Gadhafi's crackdown on the rebels.

But there was no sign how much that could be sustained.

Meanwhile the International Monetary Fund warned that oil supply growth was slowing while demand was accelerating, pointing to sustained higher prices over the long term.

"The persistent increase in oil prices over the past decade suggests that global oil markets have entered a period of increased scarcity," the IMF said in a report on the global economy.

"If the tension intensifies, whether from stronger demand, traditional supply disruptions, or setbacks to capacity growth, market clearing could force price spikes, as in 2007-2008."

"After stagnating in recent years, oil supply will not return to the growth trends of the 1980s and 1990s," Thomas Helbling, the report's lead author, told reporters.

Source.

Oil Prices Rise as Gustav Shuts Gulf Installations

World oil prices rose by less than one dollar in Asian trade today after the Hurricane Gustav forced the shutdown of almost all oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, said analysts.

New York's main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in October, rose 84 cents to USD 116.30 a barrel when trading closed Friday at the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Brent North Sea crude for October gained 72 cents to USD 114.77 from USD 114.05 in London on Friday.

About one quarter of the US oil production comes from the Gulf, one of the largest energy production hubs in the Americas, but the US officials said that more than 96% of Gulf oil production and 82% of the natural gas output had been stopped due to the storm.

Gustav was on target to plough into coastal Louisiana today, potentially as a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 242 kilometres per hour and storm surges up to 4.8 metres above normal.

"It's all about Gustav," said Tony Nunan, of Mitsubishi Corp's international petroleum business in Tokyo.

He said that price gains had been limited because of underlying worries about a global economic slowdown and falling demand for oil.

World oil prices have sunk from record highs above USD 147 a barrel in early July after surging from USD 100 at the start of the year.

Today's rise of about one dollar was "not really that much", Nunan said, adding that trading would be thin because the US markets were shut for the Labour Day holiday.

Source

Oil prices below $90 in Asian morning trade

SINGAPORE -- World oil prices fell below $90 in Asian trading on Friday amid deepening concerns that weakness in the US economy -- the world's biggest energy consumer -- could sharply dent demand, analysts said.

In morning trade, New York's main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in February, slid 51 cents to $89.62 a barrel.

The contract closed 71 cents lower at $90.13 a barrel in trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange Thursday.

Brent North Sea crude for March delivery fell 20 cents to $88.55 per barrel, after settling 75 cents lower at $88.75 per barrel on Thursday in London.

"The drop in demand is certain in the short term with the economic slowdown in the United States affecting sentiments worldwide. Everyone stops spending, and that will drive prices further down," said Tony Nunan, of Mitsubishi Corp's international petroleum business in Tokyo.

He said trading is volatile and in a "worst-case scenario" prices could fall as low as $69 a barrel.

"I can see prices dropping to the lower 80s or even the higher 70s as we move towards the end of the first quarter," he said.

Oil prices retreated as US stocks fell sharply Thursday, with investors reeling from further dismal housing data and news of a record loss at Wall Street investment and brokerage firm Merrill Lynch.

Some analysts are predicting a prolonged real-estate slump and credit crisis could push the world's largest economy into recession.

On Friday, US President George W. Bush was to propose a series of "short-term, temporary measures" to stimulate the US economy and see it past current troubles, the White House said.

"If the US falls into recession and China slows down we could be headed for one of the most significant corrections of this decade in oil," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading.

Prices remain at high levels but have shed more than $10 since striking a record in New York of $100.09 per barrel in early January.

"At the moment it seems that economic concerns continue to outweigh all these factors that drove crude prices to just above $100," Sucden analyst Andrey Kryuchenkov said in London.

"All the aspects that underpinned crude prices in 2007 and at the start of this year are still here, with tight supplies, geopolitical fears on the supply side and the broad weakness in the greenback.

But he said that until global economic jitters ease there is likely to be less emphasis on supply fundamentals.

Nunan said oil prices will only start to bounce back from first-quarter lows during the US summer holiday driving season when demand for gasoline peaks.

Source

Oil prices dip after flirting with 100 dollars

LONDON (AFP) — World oil prices eased on Thursday, one day after striking record peaks near to 100 dollars per barrel on concerns over weak crude supplies and the falling dollar.

Investors took a cautious stance to protect their positions since US floor trading was shut Thursday owing to the Thanksgiving holiday, analysts said.

New York's main contract, light sweet crude for January delivery, fell 39 cents to 96.90 dollars per barrel in electronic trade. The contract had hit an historic high of 99.29 dollars on Wednesday.

Elsewhere Thursday, London's Brent North Sea crude for January delivery slipped 21 cents to 94.63 dollars per barrel, after striking an all-time peak of 96.53 dollars on Wednesday.

"We have come up just short of 100 dollars twice now, so there is strong resistance (there)," Sucden analyst Michael Davies said in London.

Oil prices had failed to top 100 dollars per barrel on Wednesday, despite official data which showed that US energy stockpiles fell more heavily than expected last week.

David Moore, a commodity strategist with the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said he had expected prices to rise after the disappointing US energy report.

"I thought the inventory data would be supportive of the market," Moore said. "It may have been investors were cautious ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday."

The US Department of Energy (DoE) announced Wednesday that reserves of US crude oil had sunk by 1.1 million barrels in the week ending November 16.

Analysts' consensus forecast had been for a gain of 750,000 barrels.

The DoE added that US reserves of distillates, including crucial heating fuel and diesel, dived by 2.4 million barrels last week. That was far heavier than market expectations for a drop of 450,000 barrels.

Heating fuel demand is expected to pick up as the Northern hemisphere winter kicks in next month. The US northeast region is the world's biggest user of heating oil.

Moore said the market can expect continued volatility in the weeks ahead as tight global supplies and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to worry investors.

"The oil prices are certainly volatile and the outlook is obviously subjected to a lot of uncertainty. For that reason, we will see oil prices move higher in the near term ... it is still possible for oil prices to go above 100 dollars," he added.

Crude oil prices have surged by about 64 percent since the start of 2007, supported by supply disruptions in key producers such as Nigeria, geopolitical jitters over the Iranian nuclear crisis, and strong demand from China and India.

Oil prices were also winning support from a troubled dollar, which is striking a series of record low points against the surging euro.

A weak greenback encourages demand for dollar-priced commodities because they become more attractive to investors using stronger currencies.

Source

Oil prices hit record highs amid dollar weakness

NEW YORK (AFP) — World oil prices soared to new records Tuesday, breaching 98 dollars a barrel in New York, amid supply concerns and as the US dollar continued to weaken against other major currencies.

New York's main oil futures contract, light sweet crude for January delivery, soared 3.39 dollars to close at 98.03 dollars per barrel.

Prices in New York hit an all-time high of 98.62 dollars on November 7 during intraday trading, but Tuesday marked the first time prices had closed above 98 dollars.

In London, the price of Brent North Sea crude for January delivery surged 3.21 dollars to settle at 95.49 dollars per barrel, smashing a prior high of 95.19 dollars struck in November 7.

In after-hours trade, Brent crude was trading at even higher levels, at 96.24 dollars a barrel.

Some analysts believe oil prices could soon strike 100 dollars a barrel, especially as oil demand is being stoked by China and India's breakneck economic growth.

"Oil prices were higher today, with the dollar reaching fresh record lows against the euro and still coming off against other major currencies," Sucden analyst Michael Davies said.

The European single currency leapt to a historic peak above 1.48 dollars. The weakening dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities like oil cheaper for buyers armed with stronger currencies.

The market also continued to focus on the state of global energy supplies.

"Oil markets remain tight," analysts from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia said.

Despite supplies being strained ahead of the northern hemisphere winter, OPEC opted not to jack up its production quotas following a meeting in Saudi Arabia over the weekend.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has been under pressure, in particular from the United States, to boost supply to help cool prices.

However, OPEC's final declaration on Sunday after the meeting urged world peace to help stabilize prices and included a commitment to help fight global warming.

OPEC, which pumps 40 percent of global crude supplies, last decided to raise output in September when the oil producers' cartel agreed to provide an extra 500,000 barrels a day to the market, effective from November 1.

Some traders believe the ongoing weakness in the dollar will prompt OPEC to seek higher prices for oil, if not to move away from the currency all together.

"(OPEC) producers have seen their purchasing power decline with the dip in value of the greenback," said Bank of Ireland analyst Paul Harris.

OPEC has said it would hold off any discussion regarding production until its next meeting in December.

"The apparent removal of the possibility of increased supply will serve to at least underpin crude oil at these (price) levels," Harris said.

Source

Oil prices rise after OPEC summit

NEW YORK (AFP) — World oil prices rose Monday amid tight crude supplies heading into the northern hemisphere winter as traders assessed the outcome of an OPEC summit held in Saudi Arabia over the weekend.

New York's main oil futures contract, light sweet crude for January delivery, closed up 80 cents at 94.64 dollars per barrel.

In London, Brent North Sea crude for January delivery settled up 66 cents at 92.28 dollars per barrel.

"Crude futures were firmer after the OPEC meeting over the weekend in Riyadh ended without the cartel signalling any increases of oil on top of the current quota," said Sucden analyst Michael Davies.

In the run-up to the two-day summit, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) had been under pressure to increase supplies to help cool prices which some analysts believe could soon strike 100 dollars.

A final declaration on Sunday from the oil exporters' group urged world peace to help stabilize prices and included a commitment to help fight global warming.

OPEC, which pumps 40 percent of global crude supplies, last decided to raise output in September when the oil producers's cartel agreed to provide an extra 500,000 barrels a day to the market, effective from November 1.

However, an influential London-based research group warned that oil supplies would remain tight in the coming months.

"While benchmark oil prices have retreated from the 100-dollar threshold they threatened to break in recent weeks, the oil market is likely to remain tight over the winter months, as the additional oil works its way slowly through the supply chain," the Centre for Global Energy Studies (CGES) said.

The CGES added in a monthly market report: "Signs that the global economy may be heading for a slowdown are undermining longer-term forecasts of oil demand growth, suggesting that prices could fall sharply next year.

"The path of oil prices over the coming months will be greatly influenced by how OPEC reacts to any downward correction."

Although some OPEC ministers expressed concern that expensive crude would eventually dampen demand for oil, they indicated that blame for the near triple-figure price lay outside the cartel.

"The apparent removal of the possibility of increased supply will serve to at least underpin crude oil at these levels," Bank of Ireland analyst Paul Harris said.

"The factors that have precipitated the move to record levels remain intact."

Heating fuel demand typically peaks during winter especially in the northeast region of the United States.

Crude futures had last week slumped further from all-time highs of 98.62 dollars in New York and 95.19 dollars in London as OPEC and the International Energy Agency downgraded their forecasts for global oil demand. Prices were also hit by news of a surprise increase to US energy inventories.

Source